I co-authored a framework for assessing how welfare systems could respond to AI-related economic disruption, alongside applications to Kenya and Brazil.
Problem
Knowing which jobs are exposed to AI does not establish whether the institutions supporting workers and households are prepared to respond.
Analysis
The framework connects risks, policy levers and the conditions needed for delivery. It separates short-term shocks, medium-term transitions, structural change and cross-cutting access constraints.
My contribution
Co-authorship through a Windfall Trust fellowship. This was collaborative research, with the authors of each output credited below.
Public output
Avinash Kothuri, Raphael Gregorian and Deric Cheng, Welfare Resilience Assessment Framework, 18 August 2026. © 2026 Windfall Trust.
The framework is accompanied by country studies of Kenya and Brazil.
Decision implication
Use the diagnosis to distinguish options available now from responses that require stronger data, fiscal, legal or delivery foundations.
Framework: Avinash Kothuri, Raphael Gregorian and Deric Cheng.
Kenya: Raphael Gregorian, Emma Kimani and Deric Cheng.
Brazil: Raphael Gregorian, Taiye Chen and Deric Cheng.
Sources: Windfall Trust framework and Raphael’s existing welfare article. © 2026 Windfall Trust. This project summary accompanies the public research; the diagram is linked at its published source.
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