Can welfare systems respond to AI disruption?
I co-authored a welfare resilience framework and country applications for Kenya and Brazil, connecting economic risks to policy responses and the conditions needed to deliver them.
Read the projectI’m Raphael Gregorian, an independent economist and founder of RG Economics. I help organisations assess markets, compare options and make decisions using evidence. My work spans public policy, sector strategy, investment appraisal, and AI adoption and implementation.
Department for Business and Trade.
More about my background ↗
Fellowship and co-authored welfare
resilience research.
Team-based UK public-policy commissions,
attributed separately from RG engagements.
From welfare preparedness to sector strategy: the question, the analysis and the output.
I co-authored a welfare resilience framework and country applications for Kenya and Brazil, connecting economic risks to policy responses and the conditions needed to deliver them.
Read the projectFirm and sector analysis that turns a complex dataset into a clear account of economic activity and strategic relevance.
Scope grounded in the existing public client testimonial. Detailed findings remain subject to clearance.
View the project contextI’m working with Sudanahye to build an AI-assisted second brain, bringing AI into the workflow to make its archive more useful and support efficient, creative work.
Ongoing work with director Vahe Boghossian.
Explore the implementationThree areas of support, connected by economic reasoning, quantitative research and clear communication.
Evidence reviews, policy appraisal and research that connect the policy question to the institutions needed to act.
Explore this serviceFirm and sector research, international comparisons and investment analysis to assess markets and compare options.
Explore this serviceAssessing the economics of AI adoption, testing useful applications and building AI-assisted workflows around real work.
Explore this serviceOn the welfare resilience work.
Excerpt from the existing public testimonial.
Raphael combines first-principles economic thinking with the ability to build clear and decision-ready frameworks to confidently navigate highly ambiguous problem spaces.
You work directly with me. We agree the question, the evidence, the outputs and the limits of the analysis at the outset.
A focused research question, a clear scope and a useful output: a brief, a report, a model or an options assessment.
Economic and quantitative support within a wider project, working with your team or alongside another consultancy.
Research and analytical advice as questions evolve, with priorities and deliverables agreed together.

The Autumn Budget barely changes the UK’s growth outlook. It does, however, affect the economics of labour, investment and AI for individual firms. The question that matters for businesses is whether those changes are large enough to alter their decisions.
Read article
A framework for assessing whether welfare systems can respond as AI reshapes jobs and incomes, with lessons from Kenya and Brazil.
Read full articleTell me what you’re trying to decide, the evidence you have and the timescale you’re working to.